In May 2025, Morgan Stanley's Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan studied the price history of more than 6,500 U.S. stocks. The chart below shows the 20 with the best total shareholder returns from 1985 to 2024. At its worst, the median stock in that group fell 72% from its peak. After hitting bottom, it took 4.3 years to get back to its old high. For comparison, the S&P 500's worst drop over the same period was 58%.

Aside from the difficulty of picking a winning stock (from 1926 to 2016, just 4% of U.S. stocks accounted for all of the stock market's wealth creation above Treasury bills), most people simply don't have the stomach to hold one.

I just added a new page to Market Return Data: S&P 500 Rolling Returns. It shows every 1- to 30-year holding period for the S&P 500, starting each month, with data back to 1871.

The chart below sums up what it shows. Since 1950, the worst 12-month stretch for the S&P 500 was a 41% loss and the best was a 60% gain. Stretch the holding period to 15 years and every single period finished positive. The worst 30-year stretch still compounded at about 9% a year.

The middle of the range barely moves. The median return lands between roughly 10% and 14% a year no matter how long you hold. What changes is how far the outcomes stray from it.

You can switch to after-inflation returns or pick any starting year back to 1871 and see how the picture changes.

It’s hard to “see” progress because progress is often defined by the number of people who aren’t dying of cancer or heart disease, who aren't starving, or who aren’t living in the dark without electricity (among other things).

We don’t see that kind of progress because we’re focused on the people still suffering, and so it looks like very little is changing.

But rest assured, progress is being made. As just one example, look at the chart below. The five-year relative survival rate for US cancer patients rose from 49% for those diagnosed in 1975–1979 to 71% for those diagnosed in 2016–2022, according to the American Association for Cancer Research’s 2026 Cancer Progress Report (h/t Human Progress).

Progress is always being made somewhere, somehow. We just need to take a second to notice.

One of the more counterintuitive market stats I’m aware of (if not the most counterintuitive) is that market returns are actually better, on average, following an all-time high than at other times. And it's not just the short-term (1-year) returns that are better, but the 3- and 5-year returns are better than all other time periods too.

Let this be your reminder that all-time highs may not be a time to sell, but to stay the course. Or maybe even, to double down.

Stocks keep climbing despite all the turmoil and poor sentiment. If you're wondering why, look at earnings.

According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings for Q3 are on pace to grow 29.0% from a year ago. If that holds, it will be the third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%.

And companies usually beat the estimates. Based on how much the growth rate has typically risen during past earnings seasons, FactSet projects the final number will land above 35%.

Over time, stock prices follow earnings. When profits are growing this fast, a rising market makes a lot more sense, even when the mood says otherwise.

Many pundits have pointed to the Nasdaq's recent run, up 93% over the past three years, as proof we're in another tech bubble.

The comparison falls apart once you look at the Nasdaq's rolling three-year returns going back to 1974. Three-year gains of 100% or more have happened several times, including the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2010s, and 2021. It's the late '90s, when three-year returns hit nearly 300%, that remain (for now) a one-time anomaly.

If I asked you to name the world's largest oil producer, I'll bet you'd name a Middle Eastern country. And you'd be wrong.

The United States passed Saudi Arabia and Russia for the top spot in 2018 and hasn't looked back. As the chart below shows, the lead keeps growing. Pretty fascinating.

The problem with log-scale charts like the first one below is that they make the returns look much closer than they actually are. The second chart shows roughly the same data (mine only goes back to 1928 and doesn't include small-cap, etc.), but in linear form. As you can see, the difference in returns is so stark that bonds and inflation look like they're part of the x-axis as equities ran away from both over time.

For investing time horizons measured in decades, be sure to do the math on what you're giving up to avoid equity's temporary (in the US, historically always temporary) volatility. It's far, far greater than what most people think.

I recently built the best Life Insurance Needs Calculator on the entire internet on the Market Return Data site.

It's thorough but easy to understand, and you can even download the output as a PDF if you want to keep a copy.

Reply and tell me what you think.

I created a new inflation calculator on the Market Return Data site.

You can pick any period, see how inflation moved over time, and compare today's rate with the compounded average for that period.

For instance, the last 50 years show large changes in inflation, and August's 3.4% was slightly below the 50-year average of 3.59%. So, for everyone in the media saying or implying that inflation is abnormally high today, the long-term data doesn't necessarily support that position.