Ashby Daniels

The late '90s were the anomaly

Many pundits have pointed to the Nasdaq's recent run, up 93% over the past three years, as proof we're in another tech bubble.

Area chart of the Nasdaq Composite's rolling three-year returns since 1974. Returns spike to nearly 300% around 2000, far above any other period. Other peaks reach roughly 100% to 150%, including the early 1980s, early 1990s, early 2010s, and 2021. The latest reading is +93%. Negative stretches appear in the mid-1970s, early 2000s, and around 2009.
Nasdaq Composite rolling three-year returns, 1974–2026. Ritholtz Wealth Management, data via Bloomberg Finance L.P., from Barry Ritholtz's "Top? Beware Your Confirmation Bias".

The comparison falls apart once you look at the Nasdaq's rolling three-year returns going back to 1974. Three-year gains of 100% or more have happened several times, including the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2010s, and 2021. It's the late '90s, when three-year returns hit nearly 300%, that remain (for now) a one-time anomaly.