Ashby Daniels

Earnings are carrying this market

Stocks keep climbing despite all the turmoil and poor sentiment. If you're wondering why, look at earnings.

According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings for Q3 are on pace to grow 29.0% from a year ago. If that holds, it will be the third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%.

Bar chart of S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth for Q3 2026 by sector, comparing October 16 with September 30. The S&P 500 figure, circled in green, is 29.0% (29.2% on September 30). Energy leads at 127.6%, followed by Information Technology at 65.1% and Communication Services at 50.1%. Health Care is the only sector in decline, at -2.6%.
Q3 2026 year-over-year earnings growth by sector, October 16 vs. September 30. Source: FactSet.

And companies usually beat the estimates. Based on how much the growth rate has typically risen during past earnings seasons, FactSet projects the final number will land above 35%.

Over time, stock prices follow earnings. When profits are growing this fast, a rising market makes a lot more sense, even when the mood says otherwise.