Ashby Daniels

All-time highs aren't a sell signal

One of the more counterintuitive market stats I’m aware of (if not the most counterintuitive) is that market returns are actually better, on average, following an all-time high than at other times. And it's not just the short-term (1-year) returns that are better, but the 3- and 5-year returns are better than all other time periods too.

Bar chart of average S&P 500 forward total returns after a new all-time high versus all other time periods, September 1989 to June 2026. One year later: 13.6% after a new high vs. 12.0% otherwise. Three years: 46% vs. 40%. Five years: 82% vs. 74%.
Average S&P 500 forward total returns after a new all-time high vs. all other time periods, September 1989–June 2026. Charlie Bilello, Creative Planning.

Let this be your reminder that all-time highs may not be a time to sell, but to stay the course. Or maybe even, to double down.