Ashby Daniels

Stocks have tended to rally after midterms

Today, Nov. 3, is Election Day. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14.1% total return in the six months after a midterm election, compared with 5.7% over the same stretch in other years. BlackRock's explanation is that a big source of uncertainty gets cleared away.

Line chart of the average S&P 500 total return from about six months before to six months after U.S. midterm elections since 1970, indexed to 100 on election day. Midterm years drift slightly below 100 before the vote, then climb to 114.1 six months later. Non-midterm years over the same window reach 105.7.
Average S&P 500 total return around midterm elections (1970–2022) vs. the same window in non-midterm years, indexed to election day. BlackRock, using Bloomberg data as of Aug. 13, 2026.

Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac has noted that the strongest six-month stretch of the four-year presidential cycle has historically started in November of midterm years. As Sam Ro points out at TKer, there's no guarantee the pattern repeats. Fourteen elections is a small sample, but it's not nothing.