Hello friends,
Welcome to the 4th edition of The Rational Investor Newsletter. Every business day, we share a timeless bit of wisdom from a legendary investor, followed by a little commentary to help Main Street become better investors!
Onto today's quote...
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“Johannes Gutenberg’s printing press created a surge in demand for spectacles, as the new practice of reading made Europeans across the continent suddenly realize that they were farsighted; the market demand for spectacles encouraged a growing number of people to produce and experiment with lenses, which led to the invention of the microscope, which shortly thereafter enabled us to perceive that our bodies were made up of microscopic cells.
You wouldn’t think that printing technology would have anything to do with the expansion of our vision down to the cellular scale, just as you wouldn’t have thought that the evolution of pollen would alter the design of a hummingbird’s wing. But that is the way change happens.”
— Steven Johnson, How We Got to Now
Progress doesn’t move in straight lines. It zigs, it zags, and it almost always surprises us.
That’s what makes it so powerful—and so hard to forecast. The idea that a 15th-century printing press would lead to life-saving medical breakthroughs through lenses and microscopes seems absurd. That is, until it happens.
But we see this time and again. One breakthrough leads to another, which leads to another.
As investors, this matters deeply. Because when we buy into the market, we’re not just buying companies; we’re buying into the capacity of human ingenuity. And with history as our guide, that ingenuity compounds in ways we can’t yet imagine.
This is why betting on progress—despite setbacks, uncertainty, and chaos—is not blind faith. It’s historically grounded optimism.
Invariably, we can't predict what will happen next or which inventions or trends will lead to the next breakthrough.
But we can believe, with confidence, that something will. And that it’s likely to be better than we expect.
Until next time, invest rationally.
-Ashby
P.S. If you'd prefer this in podcast form (plus me riffing a bit more on this topic), you can listen to it via The Rational Investor Podcast.
